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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Glover Teixeira won · SUB R2
Elo1493
Jan Blachowicz editorial illustration
Elo1450

Jan BlachowiczvsGlover TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Glover Teixeira won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:02

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsGlover Teixeira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Glover Teixeira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Glover Teixeira at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz
Red Corner
VS
Glover Teixeira
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1493
Elo
1450
43
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz
oldest →
W
vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 21
W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22
L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25
D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25
latest
Glover TeixeiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Nikita Krylov · Sep 19
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · May 20
W
SUBvs Thiago Santos · Nov 20
L
SUBvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 22
L
vs Jamahal Hill · Jan 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricGlover Teixeira
3.55
Strikes / min
3.73
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.43
52%
Strike defense
51%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
2.11
69%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.41Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1617 vs 1639Strikes3.4 vs 3.7Takedowns1.1 vs 2.1Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.90Form1.1 vs 1.1
Jan BlachowiczGlover Teixeira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Glover Teixeira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +43.6|Blue -43.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetGlover Teixeira

By target zone

20
54% acc · 71%
Head
17
52% acc · 74%
6
100% acc · 21%
Body
6
100% acc · 26%
2
100% acc · 7%
Leg
0

By position

26
60% acc · 93%
Distance
11
44% acc · 48%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 4%
Ground
12
86% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jan Blachowicz rounds
0
even
1
Glover Teixeira rounds
Round 1Glover Teixeira edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:29Control
Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:15
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 45
Sig Strikes
23 / 39
67%
Sig Str %
60%
53 / 73
Total Strikes
71 / 93
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 6
—
TD %
37.5%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
5:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Glover Teixeira10 / 1551 / 611 / 21
1Jan Blachowicz6 / 829 / 340 / 00
2Glover Teixeira13 / 2420 / 321 / 41
2Jan Blachowicz22 / 3724 / 390 / 00

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights21

Glover Teixeira

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights23