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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1496

Jan BlachowiczvsDevin ClarkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:02

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsDevin Clark: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Devin Clark wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Devin Clark at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Devin Clark

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1493

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricDevin Clark

3.55

Strikes / min

3.03

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

52%

Strike defense

44%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

2.17

69%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczDevin Clark

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Devin Clark(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetDevin Clark

By target zone

61% acc · 42%

Head

21% acc · 40%

88% acc · 42%

Body

20% acc · 7%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

80% acc · 53%

By position

66% acc · 64%

Distance

27% acc · 67%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

83% acc · 33%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Devin Clark rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:23

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:18

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 44

Sig Strikes

15 / 43

74%

Sig Str %

31%

50 / 63

Total Strikes

31 / 60

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Devin Clark	12 / 28	20 / 36	0 / 1	0
1	Jan Blachowicz	20 / 26	28 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Devin Clark	3 / 15	11 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	13 / 18	22 / 29	1 / 1	1

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17