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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Corey Anderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1492

Jan BlachowiczvsCorey AndersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Corey Anderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsCorey Anderson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Corey Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Corey Anderson

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1493

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Corey Anderson

oldest →

vs Patrick Cummins · Apr 18

vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18

vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricCorey Anderson

3.55

Strikes / min

4.43

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

52%

Strike defense

59%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

4.89

69%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap+2.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczCorey Anderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Corey Anderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetCorey Anderson

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

55% acc · 86%

83% acc · 25%

Body

58% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

83% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 80%

Distance

31% acc · 25%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

79% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Corey Anderson rounds

Round 1Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:23

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:16Control

Round 3Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 43

Sig Strikes

84 / 150

30%

Sig Str %

57%

33 / 62

Total Strikes

156 / 237

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 4

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

10:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Corey Anderson	21 / 60	25 / 64	1 / 1	0
1	Jan Blachowicz	17 / 35	24 / 44	1 / 1	1
2	Corey Anderson	43 / 59	75 / 99	1 / 1	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	3 / 7	6 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Corey Anderson	20 / 31	56 / 74	2 / 2	0
3	Jan Blachowicz	0 / 1	3 / 4	0 / 0	0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights15