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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1573

Jan BlachowiczvsCarlos UlbergUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Carlos Ulberg

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1493

Elo

1573

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 21

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da Woon Jung · Sep 23

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricCarlos Ulberg

3.55

Strikes / min

6.57

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

52%

Strike defense

51%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.53

69%

Takedown defense

85%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczCarlos Ulberg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.2|Blue +79.2

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +483.0|Blue -483.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetCarlos Ulberg

By target zone

25% acc · 29%

Head

22% acc · 25%

38% acc · 17%

Body

40% acc · 8%

84% acc · 54%

Leg

91% acc · 67%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 99%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Carlos Ulberg rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 131

Sig Strikes

75 / 157

47.7%

Sig Str %

47%

59 / 131

Total Strikes

75 / 157

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Ulberg	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0
1	Jan Blachowicz	18 / 31	18 / 31	0 / 0
2	Carlos Ulberg	29 / 60	29 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	16 / 33	16 / 33	0 / 0
3	Carlos Ulberg	31 / 65	31 / 65	0 / 1
3	Jan Blachowicz	25 / 67	25 / 67	0 / 1

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10