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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Draw won · M-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1522

Jan BlachowiczvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Draw

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Bogdan Guskov

Blue Corner

+108

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-126

(56%)

1493

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan BlachowiczL2 streak

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 21

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

latest

Bogdan Guskov

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24

KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricBogdan Guskov

3.55

Strikes / min

4.57

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

52%

Strike defense

44%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.00

69%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczBogdan Guskov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.7|Blue +28.7

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 86%

65% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 3%

85% acc · 20%

Leg

90% acc · 11%

By position

55% acc · 88%

Distance

54% acc · 65%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

73% acc · 10%

Ground

64% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Bogdan Guskov rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bogdan Guskov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:09Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 149

Sig Strikes

80 / 140

63%

Sig Str %

56.3%

100 / 173

Total Strikes

98 / 160

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bogdan Guskov	21 / 44	21 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Jan Blachowicz	25 / 52	25 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Bogdan Guskov	32 / 51	50 / 71	0 / 0	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	11 / 13	25 / 35	0 / 0	1
3	Bogdan Guskov	27 / 45	27 / 45	0 / 0	0
3	Jan Blachowicz	48 / 84	50 / 86	0 / 0	0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8