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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alex Pereira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1523

Jan BlachowiczvsAlex PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsAlex Pereira: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Alex Pereira

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1493

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 21

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricAlex Pereira

3.55

Strikes / min

5.16

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

52%

Strike defense

53%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.11

69%

Takedown defense

79%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczAlex Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Alex Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.0|Blue +30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetAlex Pereira

By target zone

62% acc · 79%

Head

57% acc · 37%

50% acc · 8%

Body

96% acc · 33%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

95% acc · 30%

By position

61% acc · 79%

Distance

75% acc · 89%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

88% acc · 10%

89% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Alex Pereira rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:50

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:57

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:45

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 81

Sig Strikes

70 / 92

74.7%

Sig Str %

73%

82 / 117

Total Strikes

112 / 138

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

38.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:32

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Pereira	2 / 3	12 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Jan Blachowicz	6 / 6	17 / 17	1 / 3	2
2	Alex Pereira	33 / 47	54 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	20 / 29	32 / 43	1 / 2	0
3	Alex Pereira	35 / 42	46 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Jan Blachowicz	26 / 46	33 / 57	1 / 3	0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12