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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1471

Jan BlachowiczvsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:11

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Aleksandar Rakic wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksandar Rakic at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1493

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 21

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Aleksandar RakicL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Aug 20

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricAleksandar Rakic

3.55

Strikes / min

4.13

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

52%

Strike defense

51%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.64

69%

Takedown defense

85%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.0|Blue -22.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

26% acc · 26%

Head

23% acc · 52%

43% acc · 29%

Body

22% acc · 7%

74% acc · 45%

Leg

69% acc · 41%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

24% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:33Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:01

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 71

Sig Strikes

27 / 85

37.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

53 / 94

Total Strikes

61 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksandar Rakic	12 / 52	12 / 52	0 / 2	0
1	Jan Blachowicz	25 / 53	25 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	10 / 19	44 / 59	1 / 2	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	1 / 3	23 / 26	0 / 0	1
3	Aleksandar Rakic	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Jan Blachowicz	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11