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Lightweight
3 Rounds
James Krause won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Jamie Varner
Elo1493
James Krause

Jamie VarnervsJames KrauseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

James Krause won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsJames Krause: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(51.6%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Varner at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Varner
Red Corner
VS
James Krause
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1354
Elo
1493
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie VarnerL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12
W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12
L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13
L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14
L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14
latest
James Krause
oldest →
W
vs Alex White · Jan 18
W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18
W
KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19
L
vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20
W
vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie VarnerMetricJames Krause
2.92
Strikes / min
4.79
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
58%
Strike defense
61%
3.49
TDs / 15 min
0.96
66%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1501Strikes33.1 vs 59.0Takedowns3.1 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.86 vs 0.50Form-0.5 vs -0.2
Jamie VarnerJames Krause

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jamie Varner(7 fights)James Krause(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -139.0|Blue +139.0
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -87.0|Blue +87.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie VarnerTargetJames Krause

By target zone

6
24% acc · 86%
Head
12
33% acc · 55%
1
20% acc · 14%
Body
5
83% acc · 23%
0
Leg
5
56% acc · 23%

By position

3
16% acc · 43%
Distance
18
45% acc · 82%
2
29% acc · 29%
Clinch
1
20% acc · 5%
2
50% acc · 29%
Ground
3
50% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jamie Varner rounds
0
even
1
James Krause rounds
Round 1James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:35
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 30
Sig Strikes
22 / 51
23%
Sig Str %
43%
9 / 33
Total Strikes
32 / 66
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
0:35
Ctrl Time
2:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Krause22 / 5132 / 660 / 00
1Jamie Varner7 / 309 / 331 / 10

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7

James Krause

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13