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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1366

Jamie VarnervsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Varner at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Varner

Red Corner

Gleison Tibau

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1354

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie VarnerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12

vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12

KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14

KOvs James Krause · May 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14

latest

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie VarnerMetricGleison Tibau

2.92

Strikes / min

1.95

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

58%

Strike defense

63%

3.49

TDs / 15 min

4.08

66%

Takedown defense

92%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jamie VarnerGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jamie Varner(7 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.7|Blue +11.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie VarnerTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

45% acc · 76%

Head

48% acc · 88%

64% acc · 19%

Body

33% acc · 8%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

40% acc · 57%

Distance

26% acc · 35%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

65% acc · 41%

Ground

83% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jamie Varner rounds

even

Gleison Tibau rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 3Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:58

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 76

Sig Strikes

26 / 55

32%

Sig Str %

48%

63 / 104

Total Strikes

55 / 84

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

33%

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

5:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gleison Tibau	7 / 21	8 / 22	1 / 1	0
1	Jamie Varner	10 / 22	13 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Gleison Tibau	13 / 17	41 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Jamie Varner	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	1
3	Gleison Tibau	6 / 17	6 / 17	1 / 3	0
3	Jamie Varner	27 / 52	50 / 77	1 / 3	0

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18