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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · SUB R1
Elo1354
Jamie Varner
Elo1514
Drew Dober

Jamie VarnervsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:52

Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Varner at -450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Varner
Red Corner
VS
Drew Dober
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1354
Elo
1514
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie VarnerL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12
W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12
L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13
L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14
L
KOvs James Krause · May 14
latest
Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24
L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25
W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie VarnerMetricDrew Dober
2.92
Strikes / min
4.48
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
58%
Strike defense
53%
3.49
TDs / 15 min
0.61
66%
Takedown defense
58%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1471 vs 1464Strikes29.9 vs 55.0Takedowns2.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.00Form-0.8 vs -1.0
Jamie VarnerDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Jamie Varner(7 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -159.8|Blue +159.8
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie VarnerTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

2
29% acc · 50%
Head
3
33% acc · 60%
2
67% acc · 50%
Body
2
67% acc · 40%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
25% acc · 50%
Distance
3
30% acc · 60%
2
100% acc · 50%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jamie Varner rounds
0
even
1
Drew Dober rounds
Round 1Drew Dober edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 10
Sig Strikes
5 / 12
40%
Sig Str %
41%
4 / 10
Total Strikes
7 / 14
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Drew Dober5 / 127 / 140 / 01
1Jamie Varner4 / 104 / 100 / 20

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26