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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Abel Trujillo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1354

Elo1363

Jamie VarnervsAbel TrujilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jamie Varner has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Varner

Red Corner

Abel Trujillo

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1354

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie VarnerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12

vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12

vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13

KOvs James Krause · May 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14

latest

Abel TrujilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie VarnerMetricAbel Trujillo

2.92

Strikes / min

2.65

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

58%

Strike defense

59%

3.49

TDs / 15 min

2.18

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jamie VarnerAbel Trujillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jamie Varner(7 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.1|Blue +9.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie VarnerTargetAbel Trujillo

By target zone

37% acc · 94%

Head

23% acc · 94%

50% acc · 6%

Body

25% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

27% acc · 42%

Distance

19% acc · 67%

53% acc · 53%

Clinch

35% acc · 33%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jamie Varner rounds

even

Abel Trujillo rounds

Round 1Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:01

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 96

Sig Strikes

18 / 79

33%

Sig Str %

23%

51 / 122

Total Strikes

27 / 88

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Abel Trujillo	6 / 43	15 / 52	0 / 1	0
1	Jamie Varner	7 / 32	9 / 35	0 / 0	1
2	Abel Trujillo	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 2	0
2	Jamie Varner	29 / 64	42 / 87	0 / 0	0

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10