Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jamie Pickett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1410

Jamie PickettvsLaureano StaropoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Pickett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Laureano Staropoli wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Jamie Pickett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Laureano Staropoli at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Pickett enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Laureano Staropoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jamie Pickett has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jamie Pickett has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Pickett

Red Corner

Laureano Staropoli

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1488

Elo

1410

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie PickettL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22

KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22

SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23

vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24

latest

Laureano StaropoliL3 streak

oldest →

vs Hector Aldana · Nov 18

vs Thiago Alves · May 19

vs Muslim Salikhov · Oct 19

DECvs Tim Means · Aug 20

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie PickettMetricLaureano Staropoli

2.65

Strikes / min

3.31

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

50%

Strike defense

54%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

0.83

67%

Takedown defense

48%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.97evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jamie PickettLaureano Staropoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jamie Pickett(9 fights)Laureano Staropoli(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.6|Blue -78.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie PickettTargetLaureano Staropoli

By target zone

36% acc · 49%

Head

29% acc · 56%

77% acc · 49%

Body

73% acc · 32%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

36% acc · 55%

Distance

35% acc · 76%

91% acc · 45%

Clinch

75% acc · 24%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jamie Pickett rounds

even

Laureano Staropoli rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:33

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2Jamie Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:25

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Jamie Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:39

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 96

Sig Strikes

25 / 62

50%

Sig Str %

46%

58 / 108

Total Strikes

43 / 80

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 9

100%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

5:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Laureano Staropoli	4 / 7	7 / 10	0 / 3
1	Jamie Pickett	10 / 18	13 / 21	0 / 0
2	Laureano Staropoli	11 / 21	18 / 28	1 / 3
2	Jamie Pickett	18 / 35	26 / 43	1 / 1
3	Laureano Staropoli	10 / 34	18 / 42	0 / 3
3	Jamie Pickett	19 / 43	19 / 44	1 / 1

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9

Laureano Staropoli

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6