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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jamie Pickett won · U-DEC R3
Elo1488
Elo1458
Joseph Holmes

Jamie PickettvsJoseph HolmesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Pickett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joseph Holmes wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Jamie Pickett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Holmes at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jamie Pickett enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Jamie Pickett has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Pickett
Red Corner
VS
Joseph Holmes
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1488
Elo
1458
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie PickettL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22
L
KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22
L
SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23
L
vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23
L
vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24
latest
Joseph HolmesL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alen Amedovski · May 22
L
SUBvs JunYong Park · Oct 22
L
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · May 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie PickettMetricJoseph Holmes
2.65
Strikes / min
2.88
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.08
50%
Strike defense
54%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
1.49
67%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.97evenly matched on net striking-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1500Strikes2.6 vs 2.9Takedowns1.3 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.80Form-0.0 vs 0.0
Jamie PickettJoseph Holmes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jamie Pickett(9 fights)Joseph Holmes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +30.0|Blue -30.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie PickettTargetJoseph Holmes

By target zone

22
26% acc · 44%
Head
30
46% acc · 59%
19
79% acc · 38%
Body
13
68% acc · 25%
9
75% acc · 18%
Leg
8
89% acc · 16%

By position

40
37% acc · 80%
Distance
41
50% acc · 80%
10
71% acc · 20%
Clinch
10
91% acc · 20%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Jamie Pickett rounds
0
even
1
Joseph Holmes rounds
Round 1Joseph Holmes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:24
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
Round 2Jamie Pickett edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control0:18
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:08Control
Round 3Jamie Pickett edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control1:20
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
50 / 122
Sig Strikes
51 / 93
40.7%
Sig Str %
53.7%
54 / 126
Total Strikes
59 / 101
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 2
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:02
Ctrl Time
3:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joseph Holmes24 / 3526 / 370 / 00
1Jamie Pickett10 / 2312 / 251 / 20
2Joseph Holmes13 / 2718 / 320 / 20
2Jamie Pickett23 / 5524 / 561 / 20
3Joseph Holmes14 / 3115 / 320 / 00
3Jamie Pickett17 / 4418 / 450 / 00

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights9

Joseph Holmes

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4