Lightweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Naimov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1514

Jamie MullarkeyvsMuhammad NaimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Muhammad Naimov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:59

Style matchupJamie Mullarkey: WrestlervsMuhammad Naimov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Muhammad Naimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Mullarkey at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Mullarkey has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jamie Mullarkey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Mullarkey

Red Corner

Muhammad Naimov

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1490

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie MullarkeyMetricMuhammad Naimov

4.10

Strikes / min

2.51

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

54%

Strike defense

44%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

1.49

70%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jamie MullarkeyMuhammad Naimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.6|Blue +23.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie MullarkeyTargetMuhammad Naimov

By target zone

35% acc · 38%

Head

30% acc · 61%

78% acc · 36%

Body

63% acc · 18%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

48% acc · 69%

Distance

33% acc · 71%

86% acc · 31%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

even

Muhammad Naimov rounds

Round 1Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:41

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:47

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 71

Sig Strikes

28 / 70

56%

Sig Str %

39.5%

40 / 73

Total Strikes

30 / 72

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

41.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muhammad Naimov	16 / 35	18 / 37	0 / 1
1	Jamie Mullarkey	23 / 45	24 / 46	2 / 6
2	Muhammad Naimov	12 / 35	12 / 35	0 / 0
2	Jamie Mullarkey	16 / 26	16 / 27	1 / 2

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7