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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jamie Mullarkey won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Elo1476
John Makdessi

Jamie MullarkeyvsJohn MakdessiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jamie Mullarkey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJamie Mullarkey: WrestlervsJohn Makdessi: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Jamie Mullarkey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Mullarkey at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Makdessi has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Makdessi has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jamie Mullarkey has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Mullarkey
Red Corner
VS
John Makdessi
Blue Corner
-298
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1490
Elo
1476
31
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie Mullarkey
oldest →
L
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 23
L
KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26
latest
John Makdessi
oldest →
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 18
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie MullarkeyMetricJohn Makdessi
4.10
Strikes / min
5.52
4.28
Strikes absorbed / min
4.15
54%
Strike defense
68%
2.46
TDs / 15 min
0.00
70%
Takedown defense
86%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.18Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1505 vs 1543Strikes4.4 vs 5.5Takedowns2.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -0.6
Jamie MullarkeyJohn Makdessi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)John Makdessi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +14.1|Blue -14.1
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -2.5|Blue +2.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -273.0|Blue +273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie MullarkeyTargetJohn Makdessi

By target zone

38
32% acc · 43%
Head
37
31% acc · 45%
13
65% acc · 15%
Body
22
49% acc · 27%
37
95% acc · 42%
Leg
24
100% acc · 29%

By position

88
49% acc · 100%
Distance
83
44% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jamie Mullarkey rounds
0
even
2
John Makdessi rounds
Round 1John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jamie Mullarkey edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
88 / 179
Sig Strikes
83 / 188
49%
Sig Str %
43.7%
88 / 179
Total Strikes
85 / 190
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Makdessi24 / 5124 / 510 / 00
1Jamie Mullarkey22 / 4522 / 450 / 00
2John Makdessi21 / 6121 / 610 / 00
2Jamie Mullarkey37 / 6237 / 620 / 10
3John Makdessi38 / 7640 / 780 / 10
3Jamie Mullarkey29 / 7229 / 720 / 10

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20