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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jamie Mullarkey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1452

Jamie MullarkeyvsFrancisco PradoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jamie Mullarkey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Jamie Mullarkey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Mullarkey at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Francisco Prado is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jamie Mullarkey has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Jamie Mullarkey has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jamie Mullarkey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jamie Mullarkey

Red Corner

Francisco Prado

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1490

Elo

1452

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Francisco PradoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jamie MullarkeyMetricFrancisco Prado

4.10

Strikes / min

3.68

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

54%

Strike defense

54%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.76

70%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jamie MullarkeyFrancisco Prado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)Francisco Prado(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jamie MullarkeyTargetFrancisco Prado

By target zone

40% acc · 47%

Head

31% acc · 64%

93% acc · 22%

Body

40% acc · 14%

90% acc · 31%

Leg

86% acc · 21%

By position

53% acc · 83%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

Clinch

83% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

even

Francisco Prado rounds

Round 1Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control3:39

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jamie Mullarkey edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:08

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 104

Sig Strikes

28 / 75

60%

Sig Str %

41.3%

78 / 126

Total Strikes

31 / 78

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:47

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Prado	7 / 12	9 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Jamie Mullarkey	15 / 20	32 / 39	2 / 2	0
2	Francisco Prado	13 / 38	13 / 38	0 / 1	0
2	Jamie Mullarkey	25 / 49	25 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Francisco Prado	8 / 25	9 / 26	0 / 1	1
3	Jamie Mullarkey	19 / 35	21 / 38	1 / 2	0

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13

Francisco Prado

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5