Welterweight

3 Rounds

James Wilks won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1387

James WilksvsPeter SobottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

James Wilks won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: James Wilks wins(71.9%)

Actual result: James Wilks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Wilks at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

James Wilks

Red Corner

Peter Sobotta

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1490

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Wilks

oldest →

vs Claude Patrick · Oct 10

latest

Peter SobottaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15

vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16

KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17

KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18

vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James WilksMetricPeter Sobotta

1.82

Strikes / min

2.14

2.03

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

50%

Strike defense

58%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

1.53

66%

Takedown defense

77%

3.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James WilksPeter Sobotta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Wilks(2 fights)Peter Sobotta(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.3|Blue -103.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James WilksTargetPeter Sobotta

By target zone

34% acc · 55%

Head

18% acc · 53%

92% acc · 29%

Body

40% acc · 27%

86% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 42%

Distance

18% acc · 47%

67% acc · 37%

Clinch

44% acc · 47%

67% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Wilks rounds

even

Peter Sobotta rounds

Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:20Control

Round 2James Wilks edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:12

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 3James Wilks edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:53

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 80

Sig Strikes

15 / 57

47%

Sig Str %

23.3%

83 / 130

Total Strikes

46 / 93

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 6

33.3%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

8:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Peter Sobotta	7 / 23	23 / 42	1 / 1	0
1	James Wilks	10 / 24	26 / 42	0 / 2	0
2	Peter Sobotta	7 / 21	8 / 22	0 / 4	1
2	James Wilks	12 / 29	28 / 47	1 / 1	1
3	Peter Sobotta	1 / 13	15 / 29	0 / 1	1
3	James Wilks	16 / 27	29 / 41	0 / 2	0

James Wilks

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9