Welterweight

3 Rounds

Claude Patrick won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

James WilksvsClaude PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Claude Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJames Wilks: Submission grapplervsClaude Patrick: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: James Wilks wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Claude Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Wilks at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claude Patrick has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Claude Patrick has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Wilks

Red Corner

Claude Patrick

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Wilks

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jun 10

latest

Claude Patrick

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 10

vs Daniel Roberts · Apr 11

vs Brian Ebersole · Dec 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James WilksMetricClaude Patrick

1.82

Strikes / min

1.80

2.03

Strikes absorbed / min

0.89

50%

Strike defense

69%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.32

66%

Takedown defense

84%

3.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James WilksClaude Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Wilks(2 fights)Claude Patrick(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James WilksTargetClaude Patrick

By target zone

21% acc · 25%

Head

53% acc · 74%

57% acc · 33%

Body

60% acc · 13%

71% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

25% acc · 25%

Distance

43% acc · 13%

56% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

57% acc · 74%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Wilks rounds

even

Claude Patrick rounds

Round 1Claude Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:14Control

Round 2Claude Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:33

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:54Control

Round 3Claude Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:15

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 28

Sig Strikes

23 / 40

38.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

46 / 66

Total Strikes

63 / 85

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

12:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Claude Patrick	11 / 19	17 / 29	1 / 2
1	James Wilks	5 / 10	14 / 22	0 / 0
2	Claude Patrick	4 / 6	15 / 17	1 / 2
2	James Wilks	6 / 12	21 / 28	0 / 1
3	Claude Patrick	8 / 15	31 / 39	1 / 1
3	James Wilks	1 / 6	11 / 16	0 / 0

James Wilks

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

Claude Patrick

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4