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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1392

James VickvsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJames Vick: Well-roundedvsPaul Felder: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Vick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
James Vick has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

James Vick

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1377

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James VickL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Duffy · Nov 17

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James VickMetricPaul Felder

4.13

Strikes / min

3.70

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

60%

Strike defense

48%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

0.29

57%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.82evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James VickPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Vick(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.8|Blue +14.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James VickTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

32% acc · 39%

Head

39% acc · 56%

76% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 7%

84% acc · 34%

Leg

63% acc · 36%

By position

51% acc · 93%

Distance

44% acc · 87%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

70% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Vick rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:39

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:32

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 121

Sig Strikes

55 / 119

51%

Sig Str %

45.3%

69 / 129

Total Strikes

70 / 134

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	20 / 47	21 / 48	0 / 0
1	James Vick	22 / 49	23 / 50	0 / 0
2	Paul Felder	12 / 32	23 / 43	0 / 0
2	James Vick	19 / 31	20 / 32	0 / 0
3	Paul Felder	23 / 40	26 / 43	0 / 0
3	James Vick	20 / 41	26 / 47	0 / 0

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15