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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Vick won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1377

Elo1386

James VickvsJoe DuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Saturday, November 4, 2017New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

James Vick won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupJames Vick: Well-roundedvsJoe Duffy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: James Vick wins(71.2%)

Actual result: James Vick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Vick at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Vick enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

James Vick

Red Corner

Joe Duffy

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1377

Elo

1386

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James VickL4 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Joe DuffyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16

SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16

vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17

vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James VickMetricJoe Duffy

4.13

Strikes / min

2.68

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

60%

Strike defense

54%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

0.96

57%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.82Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James VickJoe Duffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Vick(10 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.6|Blue +9.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James VickTargetJoe Duffy

By target zone

25% acc · 64%

Head

21% acc · 36%

48% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 28%

56% acc · 12%

Leg

90% acc · 36%

By position

27% acc · 81%

Distance

38% acc · 96%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

57% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Vick rounds

even

Joe Duffy rounds

Round 1Joe Duffy edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 137

Sig Strikes

25 / 66

30%

Sig Str %

37%

43 / 138

Total Strikes

26 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joe Duffy	16 / 40	16 / 40	2 / 2
1	James Vick	18 / 68	18 / 68	0 / 0
2	Joe Duffy	9 / 26	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	James Vick	24 / 69	25 / 70	0 / 0

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8