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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Vick won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1496

James VickvsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

James Vick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJames Vick: Well-roundedvsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(60.5%)

Actual result: James Vick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Vick enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

James Vick

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1377

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James VickL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Duffy · Nov 17

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James VickMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

4.13

Strikes / min

3.13

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

0.98

57%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.82evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James VickFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Vick(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -119.6|Blue +119.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James VickTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

24% acc · 35%

Head

15% acc · 38%

76% acc · 56%

Body

80% acc · 62%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

41% acc · 88%

Distance

27% acc · 88%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

80% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Vick rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:09Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:15

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 158

Sig Strikes

26 / 90

43%

Sig Str %

28.3%

72 / 162

Total Strikes

27 / 91

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Trinaldo	7 / 27	8 / 28	2 / 2	1
1	James Vick	23 / 61	27 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 30	9 / 30	1 / 1	0
2	James Vick	25 / 50	25 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	10 / 33	10 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	James Vick	20 / 47	20 / 47	0 / 0	0

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26