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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Nate Marquardt won · SUB R1
Elo1357
James Te Huna
Elo1363

James Te HunavsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Nate Marquardt won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:34

Style matchupJames Te Huna: WrestlervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: James Te Huna wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Te Huna at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • James Te Huna enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

James Te Huna
Red Corner
VS
Nate Marquardt
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1357
Elo
1363
44
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Te HunaL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joey Beltran · Jul 12
W
vs Ryan Jimmo · Feb 13
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 13
L
KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 13
L
KOvs Steve Bosse · Mar 16
latest
Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16
W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16
L
vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17
L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17
L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James Te HunaMetricNate Marquardt
4.04
Strikes / min
2.71
2.99
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
62%
Strike defense
55%
2.75
TDs / 15 min
1.87
58%
Takedown defense
70%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1512 vs 1487Strikes29.4 vs 25.1Takedowns1.4 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.13 vs 0.81Form-0.3 vs -0.8
James Te HunaNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
James Te Huna(9 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James Te HunaTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

1
25% acc · 17%
Head
15
65% acc · 88%
3
75% acc · 50%
Body
2
67% acc · 12%
2
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
33% acc · 18%
6
75% acc · 100%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 12%
0
Ground
12
86% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
James Te Huna rounds
0
even
1
Nate Marquardt rounds
Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:39
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:14Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 10
Sig Strikes
17 / 27
60%
Sig Str %
62%
17 / 21
Total Strikes
29 / 40
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 2
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:39
Ctrl Time
3:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nate Marquardt17 / 2729 / 402 / 21
1James Te Huna6 / 1017 / 210 / 10

James Te Huna

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14