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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

James Te Huna won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1357

Elo1490

James Te HunavsAaron RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

James Te Huna won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:08

Style matchupJames Te Huna: WrestlervsAaron Rosa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aaron Rosa wins(50.7%)

Actual result: James Te Huna wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Rosa at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Te Huna enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
James Te Huna is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Aaron Rosa has lost 100% of fights by KO.
James Te Huna has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aaron Rosa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Te Huna

Red Corner

Aaron Rosa

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1357

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Te HunaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · Feb 13

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 13

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 13

SUBvs Nate Marquardt · Jun 14

KOvs Steve Bosse · Mar 16

latest

Aaron Rosa

oldest →

KOvs Joey Beltran · Jun 11

vs Matt Lucas · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James Te HunaMetricAaron Rosa

4.04

Strikes / min

4.03

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

62%

Strike defense

45%

2.75

TDs / 15 min

0.36

58%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James Te HunaAaron Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Te Huna(9 fights)Aaron Rosa(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -133.6|Blue +133.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James Te HunaTargetAaron Rosa

By target zone

65% acc · 91%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

61% acc · 50%

Distance

0% acc

57% acc · 18%

Clinch

88% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Te Huna rounds

even

Aaron Rosa rounds

Round 1James Te Huna edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:07

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 33

Sig Strikes

0 / 12

66%

Sig Str %

37 / 50

Total Strikes

16 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aaron Rosa	0 / 12	16 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	James Te Huna	22 / 33	37 / 50	0 / 0	0

James Te Huna

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9

Aaron Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3