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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Willis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1492

James MulheronvsJustin WillisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Justin Willis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Willis at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Willis has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Justin Willis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

James Mulheron

Red Corner

Justin Willis

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1491

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James MulheronNo prior UFC fights on record.

Justin Willis

oldest →

KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17

vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18

vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18

vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James MulheronMetricJustin Willis

2.40

Strikes / min

3.37

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

42%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.96

25%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.07Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+0.80

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Mulheron(1 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James MulheronTargetJustin Willis

By target zone

18% acc · 42%

Head

55% acc · 77%

72% acc · 50%

Body

64% acc · 13%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

29% acc · 83%

Distance

52% acc · 77%

60% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

91% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Mulheron rounds

even

Justin Willis rounds

Round 1Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 3Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:40

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 114

Sig Strikes

52 / 91

31%

Sig Str %

57%

56 / 136

Total Strikes

72 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Willis	15 / 30	17 / 32	1 / 1
1	James Mulheron	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 0
2	Justin Willis	22 / 30	34 / 45	1 / 1
2	James Mulheron	8 / 37	22 / 51	0 / 0
3	Justin Willis	15 / 31	21 / 37	1 / 2
3	James Mulheron	15 / 42	21 / 50	0 / 0

James Mulheron

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights1

Justin Willis

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5