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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Morono won · U-DEC R3
Elo1359
James Moontasri
Elo1478

James MoontasrivsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Alex Morono has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • James Moontasri has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors James Moontasri (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

James Moontasri
Red Corner
VS
Alex Morono
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1359
Elo
1478
38
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Moontasri
oldest →
L
vs Joe Ellenberger · Jun 14
W
SUBvs Cody Pfister · Feb 15
L
SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 15
W
KOvs Anton Zafir · Nov 15
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 16
latest
Alex MoronoL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Court McGee · Apr 24
L
vs Niko Price · Jun 24
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24
L
KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25
L
vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James MoontasriMetricAlex Morono
2.39
Strikes / min
4.90
3.86
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
40%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.32
79%
Takedown defense
47%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.47Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1521Strikes19.2 vs 43.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 1.00Form-0.3 vs 1.0
James MoontasriAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
James Moontasri(6 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -118.8|Blue +118.8
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James MoontasriTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

14
28% acc · 30%
Head
85
55% acc · 77%
24
65% acc · 52%
Body
8
73% acc · 7%
8
100% acc · 17%
Leg
18
86% acc · 16%

By position

45
49% acc · 98%
Distance
92
58% acc · 83%
1
33% acc · 2%
Clinch
19
70% acc · 17%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
James Moontasri rounds
0
even
3
Alex Morono rounds
Round 1Alex Morono edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alex Morono edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:19
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 3Alex Morono edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
63Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 95
Sig Strikes
111 / 186
50.3%
Sig Str %
56%
48 / 97
Total Strikes
112 / 187
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:19
Ctrl Time
0:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex Morono18 / 3918 / 390 / 00
1James Moontasri15 / 2515 / 250 / 00
2Alex Morono30 / 5631 / 570 / 30
2James Moontasri12 / 2413 / 250 / 00
3Alex Morono63 / 9163 / 910 / 00
3James Moontasri19 / 4620 / 470 / 00

James Moontasri

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights23