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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Fabio Maldonado won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1351
Elo1356
Fabio Maldonado

James McSweeneyvsFabio MaldonadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Fabio Maldonado won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:48

Style matchupJames McSweeney: Well-roundedvsFabio Maldonado: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: James McSweeney wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Fabio Maldonado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James McSweeney at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Fabio Maldonado has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • James McSweeney has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors James McSweeney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

James McSweeney
Red Corner
VS
Fabio Maldonado
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
1351
Elo
1356
45
Age
46
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James McSweeney
oldest →
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jun 10
latest
Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Gian Villante · Mar 14
L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14
W
KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14
L
DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15
L
vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James McSweeneyMetricFabio Maldonado
3.94
Strikes / min
5.29
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.31
42%
Strike defense
53%
0.52
TDs / 15 min
0.44
100%
Takedown defense
61%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1500Strikes32.0 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts1.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
James McSweeneyFabio Maldonado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
James McSweeney(2 fights)Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.9|Blue +4.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -46.3|Blue +46.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James McSweeneyTargetFabio Maldonado

By target zone

20
32% acc · 41%
Head
50
60% acc · 56%
16
70% acc · 33%
Body
39
98% acc · 44%
13
93% acc · 27%
Leg
0

By position

38
47% acc · 78%
Distance
65
68% acc · 73%
11
61% acc · 22%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 6%
0
Ground
19
90% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
James McSweeney rounds
0
even
2
Fabio Maldonado rounds
Round 1James McSweeney edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control1:09
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Fabio Maldonado edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
50Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:00Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
49 / 99
Sig Strikes
89 / 123
37.7%
Sig Str %
70.7%
58 / 111
Total Strikes
143 / 184
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
1:09
Ctrl Time
3:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Fabio Maldonado12 / 3025 / 440 / 10
1James McSweeney37 / 6745 / 770 / 10
2Fabio Maldonado50 / 6591 / 1120 / 02
2James McSweeney11 / 2512 / 270 / 00
3Fabio Maldonado27 / 2827 / 280 / 00
3James McSweeney1 / 71 / 70 / 00

James McSweeney

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights2

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11