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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Padilla won · SUB R1
Elo1476
James Llontop
Elo1548

James LlontopvsChris PadillaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Padilla won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupJames Llontop: Pressure fightervsChris Padilla: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Padilla at +350 American odds

+$350 profit

$450 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Padilla has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Llontop
Red Corner
VS
Chris Padilla
Blue Corner
-455
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+350
(22%)
1476
Elo
1548
26
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James LlontopL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Aug 24
L
vs Mauricio Ruffy · Nov 24
latest
Chris Padilla
oldest →
W
KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24
W
vs Jai Herbert · Mar 25
W
KOvs Ismael Bonfim · Nov 25
D
DECvs MarQuel Mederos · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James LlontopMetricChris Padilla
5.57
Strikes / min
6.19
4.12
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
57%
Strike defense
49%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.13
54%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.45evenly matched on net striking+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes5.4 vs 5.8Takedowns0.0 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.10Form0.0 vs 0.0
James LlontopChris Padilla

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601485151015351560← oldermost recent →
James Llontop(3 fights)Chris Padilla(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -72.1|Blue +72.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James LlontopTargetChris Padilla

By target zone

7
28% acc · 37%
Head
6
33% acc · 50%
2
50% acc · 11%
Body
1
33% acc · 8%
10
91% acc · 53%
Leg
5
100% acc · 42%

By position

19
48% acc · 100%
Distance
9
39% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 17%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
James Llontop rounds
0
even
1
Chris Padilla rounds
Round 1Chris Padilla edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 40
Sig Strikes
12 / 26
47%
Sig Str %
46%
19 / 40
Total Strikes
14 / 29
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 3
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Padilla12 / 2614 / 293 / 31
1James Llontop19 / 4019 / 400 / 00

James Llontop

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Chris Padilla

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4