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Welterweight

3 Rounds

James Krause won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1489

James KrausevsWarlley AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

James Krause won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:28

Style matchupJames Krause: Pressure fightervsWarlley Alves: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: James Krause wins(53.8%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Krause at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
James Krause has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

James Krause

Red Corner

Warlley Alves

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1493

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Krause

oldest →

vs Tom Gallicchio · Jul 17

vs Alex White · Jan 18

KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19

vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20

vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20

latest

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James KrauseMetricWarlley Alves

4.79

Strikes / min

3.04

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

61%

Strike defense

50%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

1.22

59%

Takedown defense

62%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.68Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James KrauseWarlley Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Krause(10 fights)Warlley Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.7|Blue -3.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +118.0|Blue -118.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James KrauseTargetWarlley Alves

By target zone

52% acc · 73%

Head

43% acc · 71%

74% acc · 24%

Body

46% acc · 21%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

51% acc · 73%

Distance

35% acc · 64%

76% acc · 27%

Clinch

91% acc · 36%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Krause rounds

even

Warlley Alves rounds

Round 1James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:55

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:10

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 106

Sig Strikes

28 / 64

57.5%

Sig Str %

45%

79 / 126

Total Strikes

39 / 78

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Warlley Alves	16 / 40	19 / 44	1 / 1
1	James Krause	31 / 65	38 / 72	0 / 2
2	Warlley Alves	12 / 24	20 / 34	0 / 0
2	James Krause	28 / 41	41 / 54	0 / 2

James Krause

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16