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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Valmir Lazaro won · S-DEC R3
Elo1493
James Krause
Elo1490

James KrausevsValmir LazaroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Valmir Lazaro won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJames Krause: Pressure fightervsValmir Lazaro: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Valmir Lazaro wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Valmir Lazaro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valmir Lazaro at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Valmir Lazaro has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Krause
Red Corner
VS
Valmir Lazaro
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1493
Elo
1490
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Krause
oldest →
W
vs Alex White · Jan 18
W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18
W
KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19
L
vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20
W
vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20
latest
Valmir LazaroL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs James Vick · Aug 14
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James KrauseMetricValmir Lazaro
4.79
Strikes / min
4.87
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
61%
Strike defense
61%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
1.33
59%
Takedown defense
96%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.68evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1483Strikes49.5 vs 91.0Takedowns0.3 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -1.0
James KrauseValmir Lazaro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
James Krause(10 fights)Valmir Lazaro(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +3.2|Blue -3.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James KrauseTargetValmir Lazaro

By target zone

58
35% acc · 67%
Head
60
28% acc · 69%
14
64% acc · 16%
Body
16
53% acc · 18%
15
71% acc · 17%
Leg
11
85% acc · 13%

By position

84
41% acc · 97%
Distance
80
33% acc · 92%
3
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
7
70% acc · 8%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
James Krause rounds
1
even
1
Valmir Lazaro rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control1:09
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 2Valmir Lazaro edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:05
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:29
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
87 / 209
Sig Strikes
87 / 254
41.3%
Sig Str %
34.3%
98 / 221
Total Strikes
87 / 254
0 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:43
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Valmir Lazaro21 / 5921 / 590 / 00
1James Krause18 / 4126 / 490 / 30
2Valmir Lazaro36 / 8836 / 880 / 00
2James Krause31 / 7432 / 750 / 50
3Valmir Lazaro30 / 10730 / 1070 / 00
3James Krause38 / 9440 / 970 / 20

James Krause

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Valmir Lazaro

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3