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Welterweight

3 Rounds

James Krause won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1491

James KrausevsTom GallicchioUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

James Krause won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: James Krause wins(69.1%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Krause at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Krause has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
James Krause has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Gallicchio (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

James Krause

Red Corner

Tom Gallicchio

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Krause

oldest →

vs Alex White · Jan 18

KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18

KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19

vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20

vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20

latest

Tom GallicchioNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James KrauseMetricTom Gallicchio

4.79

Strikes / min

3.53

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

7.07

61%

Strike defense

43%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

1.00

59%

Takedown defense

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.68Δ 4.22 — meaningful gap-3.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James KrauseTom Gallicchio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Krause(10 fights)Tom Gallicchio(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James KrauseTargetTom Gallicchio

By target zone

102

56% acc · 96%

Head

15% acc · 45%

75% acc · 3%

Body

57% acc · 32%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

105

57% acc · 99%

Distance

26% acc · 96%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Krause rounds

even

Tom Gallicchio rounds

Round 1James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:09

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 188

Sig Strikes

53 / 200

56.7%

Sig Str %

26.3%

113 / 201

Total Strikes

57 / 204

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 9

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom Gallicchio	15 / 55	18 / 58	1 / 3
1	James Krause	33 / 53	33 / 54	0 / 0
2	Tom Gallicchio	21 / 68	21 / 68	0 / 2
2	James Krause	35 / 62	35 / 62	0 / 0
3	Tom Gallicchio	17 / 77	18 / 78	0 / 4
3	James Krause	38 / 73	45 / 85	0 / 0

James Krause

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Tom Gallicchio

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights1