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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Krause won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1358

James KrausevsShane CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

James Krause won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJames Krause: Pressure fightervsShane Campbell: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: James Krause wins(52.4%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Krause at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Campbell has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Krause

Red Corner

Shane Campbell

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1493

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Krause

oldest →

vs Alex White · Jan 18

KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18

KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19

vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20

vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20

latest

Shane CampbellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Makdessi · Apr 15

vs Elias Silverio · Aug 15

SUBvs Erik Koch · May 16

KOvs Felipe Silva · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James KrauseMetricShane Campbell

4.79

Strikes / min

3.99

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

61%

Strike defense

55%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

1.36

59%

Takedown defense

82%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.68evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

James KrauseShane Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

James Krause(10 fights)Shane Campbell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.2|Blue -135.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James KrauseTargetShane Campbell

By target zone

36% acc · 74%

Head

46% acc · 40%

75% acc · 19%

Body

82% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

88% acc · 27%

By position

41% acc · 94%

Distance

60% acc · 76%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

78% acc · 9%

Ground

81% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

James Krause rounds

even

Shane Campbell rounds

Round 1Shane Campbell edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control1:35

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:05

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Shane Campbell edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:01

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 111

Sig Strikes

82 / 129

37.7%

Sig Str %

70.7%

55 / 124

Total Strikes

106 / 156

2 / 14

TDs

2 / 3

11%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:41

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Campbell	36 / 61	37 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	James Krause	31 / 64	32 / 65	0 / 5	1
2	Shane Campbell	12 / 13	16 / 17	1 / 2	0
2	James Krause	4 / 13	10 / 23	2 / 6	1
3	Shane Campbell	34 / 55	53 / 77	1 / 1	0
3	James Krause	12 / 34	13 / 36	0 / 3	0

James Krause

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Shane Campbell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5