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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Igor Pokrajac won · SUB R1
Elo1351
Elo1357

James IrvinvsIgor PokrajacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Igor Pokrajac won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:29

Model Prediction: Igor Pokrajac wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Igor Pokrajac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Igor Pokrajac at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Igor Pokrajac enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Igor Pokrajac is a KO finisher (50% of wins). James Irvin has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Igor Pokrajac has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

James Irvin
Red Corner
VS
Igor Pokrajac
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1351
Elo
1357
47
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Irvin
oldest →
L
KOvs Alessio Sakara · Mar 10
latest
Igor PokrajacL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12
L
vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13
L
KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13
L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James IrvinMetricIgor Pokrajac
2.03
Strikes / min
2.25
3.86
Strikes absorbed / min
4.26
35%
Strike defense
40%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.87
36%
Takedown defense
51%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83evenly matched on net striking-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes5.3 vs 21.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.11 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
James IrvinIgor Pokrajac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
James Irvin(2 fights)Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.9|Blue +5.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James IrvinTargetIgor Pokrajac

By target zone

11
50% acc · 100%
Head
18
67% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
25% acc · 9%
Distance
10
59% acc · 56%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
100% acc · 11%
10
63% acc · 91%
Ground
6
75% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
James Irvin rounds
0
even
1
Igor Pokrajac rounds
Round 1Igor Pokrajac edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:06
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 22
Sig Strikes
18 / 27
50%
Sig Str %
66%
14 / 25
Total Strikes
21 / 30
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
1:06
Ctrl Time
1:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Igor Pokrajac18 / 2721 / 302 / 31
1James Irvin11 / 2214 / 250 / 10

James Irvin

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10