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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jason High won · SUB R1
Elo1352
James Head
Elo1490

James HeadvsJason HighUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Jason High won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:41

Style matchupJames Head: Well-roundedvsJason High: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: James Head wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Jason High wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Head at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • James Head threatens submissions; Jason High has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Jason High threatens submissions; James Head has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • James Head has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jason High (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

James Head
Red Corner
VS
Jason High
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1352
Elo
1490
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

James Head
oldest →
L
SUBvs Nick Ring · Jun 11
W
SUBvs Papy Abedi · Apr 12
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Jul 12
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 12
latest
Jason High
oldest →
L
vs Charlie Brenneman · Mar 10
L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 13
W
vs Anthony Lapsley · Nov 13
L
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

James HeadMetricJason High
2.75
Strikes / min
1.28
3.11
Strikes absorbed / min
1.56
49%
Strike defense
48%
0.41
TDs / 15 min
2.36
66%
Takedown defense
37%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1507 vs 1464Strikes25.3 vs 6.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.50Form0.0 vs -1.0
James HeadJason High

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
James Head(5 fights)Jason High(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.9|Blue +137.9
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +175.0|Blue -175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

James HeadTargetJason High

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
33% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
James Head rounds
0
even
1
Jason High rounds
Round 1Jason High edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:03
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
1 / 6
0%
Sig Str %
16%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
8 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
1:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason High1 / 68 / 131 / 12
1James Head0 / 10 / 10 / 00

James Head

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5

Jason High

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5