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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1507

Elo1523

Jalin TurnervsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:11

Style matchupJalin Turner: Pressure fightervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jalin Turner wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).
Jalin Turner has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jalin Turner

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1507

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jalin Turner

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 23

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25

KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Feb 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jalin TurnerMetricRenato Moicano

5.79

Strikes / min

4.10

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

41%

Strike defense

59%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

1.68

75%

Takedown defense

64%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jalin TurnerRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jalin Turner(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.7|Blue +15.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jalin TurnerTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

31% acc · 63%

Head

53% acc · 89%

60% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 8%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

38% acc · 94%

Distance

48% acc · 31%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

56% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jalin Turner rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 40

Sig Strikes

36 / 67

41%

Sig Str %

52%

16 / 40

Total Strikes

87 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

5:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renato Moicano	8 / 16	32 / 45	1 / 3
1	Jalin Turner	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	28 / 51	55 / 83	1 / 3
2	Jalin Turner	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20