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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Frevola won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1483

Jalin TurnervsMatt FrevolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Matt Frevola won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJalin Turner: Pressure fightervsMatt Frevola: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Frevola at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jalin Turner is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Matt Frevola has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jalin Turner has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).
Jalin Turner has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jalin Turner

Red Corner

Matt Frevola

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1507

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jalin Turner

oldest →

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25

KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25

latest

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jalin TurnerMetricMatt Frevola

5.79

Strikes / min

3.30

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

41%

Strike defense

56%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.34

75%

Takedown defense

40%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jalin TurnerMatt Frevola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jalin Turner(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -391.0|Blue +391.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jalin TurnerTargetMatt Frevola

By target zone

27% acc · 77%

Head

36% acc · 58%

53% acc · 23%

Body

28% acc · 16%

Leg

89% acc · 26%

By position

29% acc · 89%

Distance

36% acc · 77%

20% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 9%

Ground

88% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jalin Turner rounds

even

Matt Frevola rounds

Round 1Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:22

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:44

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 116

Sig Strikes

31 / 77

31%

Sig Str %

40.7%

42 / 124

Total Strikes

49 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 13

—

TD %

30.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

5:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Frevola	11 / 22	13 / 24	2 / 6	1
1	Jalin Turner	11 / 28	18 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Frevola	10 / 26	16 / 32	1 / 4	1
2	Jalin Turner	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0	1
3	Matt Frevola	10 / 29	20 / 39	1 / 3	0
3	Jalin Turner	14 / 51	14 / 51	0 / 0	0

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10