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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ignacio Bahamondes won · SUB R1

Elo1507

Elo1502

Jalin TurnervsIgnacio BahamondesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ignacio Bahamondes won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:29

Style matchupJalin Turner: Pressure fightervsIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Ignacio Bahamondes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ignacio Bahamondes at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ignacio Bahamondes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jalin Turner

Red Corner

Ignacio Bahamondes

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1507

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jalin Turner

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 23

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24

KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25

latest

Ignacio BahamondesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ludovit Klein · Aug 23

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Sep 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 25

vs Tofiq Musayev · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jalin TurnerMetricIgnacio Bahamondes

5.79

Strikes / min

5.99

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

41%

Strike defense

55%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25evenly matched on net striking+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jalin TurnerIgnacio Bahamondes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jalin Turner(10 fights)Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.2|Blue -5.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jalin TurnerTargetIgnacio Bahamondes

By target zone

25% acc · 57%

Head

54% acc · 70%

67% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 71%

Distance

55% acc · 60%

0% acc

Clinch

29% acc · 29%

Ground

80% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jalin Turner rounds

even

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:43

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 20

Sig Strikes

10 / 16

35%

Sig Str %

62%

11 / 25

Total Strikes

17 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	10 / 16	17 / 23	0 / 1	1
1	Jalin Turner	7 / 20	11 / 25	0 / 0	0

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10