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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Shields won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1398

Jake ShieldsvsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Jake Shields won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Shields wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Jake Shields wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Shields at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Shields

Red Corner

Tyron Woodley

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1490

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Shields

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12

vs Demian Maia · Oct 13

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14

latest

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake ShieldsMetricTyron Woodley

2.45

Strikes / min

2.36

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

56%

Strike defense

54%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

1.06

35%

Takedown defense

87%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.65Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake ShieldsTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Shields(7 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +92.5|Blue -92.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake ShieldsTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

7% acc · 7%

Head

26% acc · 18%

61% acc · 60%

Body

95% acc · 68%

69% acc · 33%

Leg

89% acc · 13%

By position

25% acc · 40%

Distance

42% acc · 37%

61% acc · 60%

Clinch

93% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Shields rounds

even

Tyron Woodley rounds

Round 1Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:56

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:15

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:56

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 211

Sig Strikes

60 / 94

37.7%

Sig Str %

65%

132 / 267

Total Strikes

97 / 131

0 / 18

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:07

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyron Woodley	17 / 27	31 / 41	0 / 0
1	Jake Shields	38 / 93	48 / 103	0 / 4
2	Tyron Woodley	18 / 24	22 / 28	0 / 0
2	Jake Shields	19 / 53	43 / 80	0 / 7
3	Tyron Woodley	25 / 43	44 / 62	0 / 0
3	Jake Shields	25 / 65	41 / 84	0 / 7

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15