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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Shields won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Jake ShieldsvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Jake Shields won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Shields: WrestlervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Martin Kampmann wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Jake Shields wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Kampmann at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Kampmann has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Shields

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Shields

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13

vs Demian Maia · Oct 13

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake ShieldsMetricMartin Kampmann

2.45

Strikes / min

3.22

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

56%

Strike defense

62%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

1.86

35%

Takedown defense

78%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.65evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake ShieldsMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Shields(7 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.9|Blue -137.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.3|Blue -48.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake ShieldsTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

36% acc · 36%

Head

55% acc · 51%

82% acc · 36%

Body

81% acc · 49%

70% acc · 28%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 84%

Distance

36% acc · 23%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

80% acc · 57%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Shields rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:36

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:54

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:59

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 46

Sig Strikes

35 / 54

51.7%

Sig Str %

65.7%

53 / 80

Total Strikes

57 / 77

4 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

26.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:29

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	10 / 14	12 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Shields	14 / 21	20 / 27	1 / 5	0
2	Martin Kampmann	15 / 25	19 / 29	0 / 0	1
2	Jake Shields	8 / 12	20 / 25	2 / 5	0
3	Martin Kampmann	10 / 15	26 / 32	0 / 0	2
3	Jake Shields	3 / 13	13 / 28	1 / 5	0

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8