← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Hector Lombard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1368

Jake ShieldsvsHector LombardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Hector Lombard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Shields: WrestlervsHector Lombard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jake Shields wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Hector Lombard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Shields at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Shields enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Shields

Red Corner

Hector Lombard

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake ShieldsW3 streak

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13

vs Demian Maia · Oct 13

latest

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake ShieldsMetricHector Lombard

2.45

Strikes / min

3.02

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

56%

Strike defense

53%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

1.69

35%

Takedown defense

77%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.65evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake ShieldsHector Lombard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Shields(7 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.6|Blue -122.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +10.0|Blue -10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake ShieldsTargetHector Lombard

By target zone

4% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 74%

29% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 22%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

6% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 30%

0% acc

Clinch

73% acc · 41%

Ground

62% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Shields rounds

even

Hector Lombard rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 2Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 3Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 72

Sig Strikes

27 / 56

5.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

58 / 128

Total Strikes

67 / 98

0 / 7

TDs

5 / 5

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Lombard	18 / 33	38 / 54	2 / 2	0
1	Jake Shields	1 / 23	29 / 51	0 / 3	0
2	Hector Lombard	4 / 13	12 / 21	2 / 2	0
2	Jake Shields	1 / 24	15 / 39	0 / 2	0
3	Hector Lombard	5 / 10	17 / 23	1 / 1	0
3	Jake Shields	2 / 25	14 / 38	0 / 2	1

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11