← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · SUB R2

Elo1522

Elo1354

Jake MatthewsvsVagner RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · Friday, November 7, 2014Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:52

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(79.4%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jake Matthews has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Vagner Rocha

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1522

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Vagner Rocha

oldest →

vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11

SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11

KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricVagner Rocha

3.34

Strikes / min

2.64

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

60%

Strike defense

48%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.40

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsVagner Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +168.6|Blue -168.6

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -864.0|Blue +864.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetVagner Rocha

By target zone

33% acc · 65%

Head

39% acc · 50%

50% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

55% acc · 43%

By position

39% acc · 88%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Vagner Rocha rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:39

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 63

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

47.5%

Sig Str %

48%

32 / 69

Total Strikes

17 / 33

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vagner Rocha	8 / 19	11 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Matthews	13 / 43	16 / 46	1 / 2	0
2	Vagner Rocha	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Matthews	13 / 20	16 / 23	0 / 0	1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Vagner Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4