Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · U-DEC R3
Elo1522
Jake Matthews
Elo1377

Jake MatthewsvsRostem AkmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rostem Akman has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rostem Akman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Rostem Akman
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
1522
Elo
1377
31
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews
oldest →
W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24
W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25
W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26
latest
Rostem Akman
oldest →
L
vs Sergey Khandozhko · Jun 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricRostem Akman
3.34
Strikes / min
1.80
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
60%
Strike defense
57%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.00
64%
Takedown defense
87%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap-2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1550 vs 1482Strikes3.1 vs 1.8Takedowns2.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs -1.0
Jake MatthewsRostem Akman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Rostem Akman(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +145.7|Blue -145.7
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetRostem Akman

By target zone

19
25% acc · 32%
Head
8
9% acc · 53%
20
57% acc · 34%
Body
6
40% acc · 40%
20
91% acc · 34%
Leg
1
100% acc · 7%

By position

53
42% acc · 90%
Distance
11
11% acc · 73%
6
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 27%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jake Matthews rounds
0
even
0
Rostem Akman rounds
Round 1Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:49
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
59 / 133
Sig Strikes
15 / 110
43.7%
Sig Str %
13.3%
61 / 136
Total Strikes
15 / 110
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:49
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rostem Akman5 / 335 / 330 / 00
1Jake Matthews15 / 3915 / 390 / 00
2Rostem Akman5 / 425 / 420 / 00
2Jake Matthews18 / 4818 / 480 / 00
3Rostem Akman5 / 355 / 350 / 00
3Jake Matthews26 / 4628 / 490 / 20

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights25

Rostem Akman

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2