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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · SUB R3

Elo1522

Elo1505

Jake MatthewsvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:08

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +260 American odds

+$260 profit

$360 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Neil Magny has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1522

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake MatthewsW4 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Nov 23

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Mike Malott · Jan 24

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricNeil Magny

3.34

Strikes / min

3.40

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

60%

Strike defense

51%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

2.17

64%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

54% acc · 90%

100% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 3%

75% acc · 17%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 83%

Distance

56% acc · 94%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:22

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:53

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:28

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 44

Sig Strikes

31 / 57

37.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

28 / 54

Total Strikes

73 / 103

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:43

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	18 / 32	24 / 38	1 / 2	0
1	Jake Matthews	9 / 20	10 / 21	0 / 0	1
2	Neil Magny	7 / 14	22 / 29	0 / 1	0
2	Jake Matthews	7 / 16	14 / 23	0 / 0	1
3	Neil Magny	6 / 11	27 / 36	2 / 2	1
3	Jake Matthews	2 / 8	4 / 10	0 / 1	1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37