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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Semelsberger won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1487

Jake MatthewsvsMatthew SemelsbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Semelsberger won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jake Matthews has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Matthew Semelsberger

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1522

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Matthew SemelsbergerL5 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jul 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricMatthew Semelsberger

3.34

Strikes / min

3.77

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.01

64%

Takedown defense

45%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsMatthew Semelsberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetMatthew Semelsberger

By target zone

30% acc · 72%

Head

38% acc · 76%

67% acc · 19%

Body

39% acc · 16%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

44% acc · 9%

By position

35% acc · 94%

Distance

33% acc · 58%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

86% acc · 13%

0% acc

Ground

45% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:42

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 89

Sig Strikes

45 / 116

38%

Sig Str %

39%

74 / 140

Total Strikes

54 / 129

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 5

50%

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

4:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Semelsberger	18 / 41	22 / 46	1 / 1	0
1	Jake Matthews	8 / 15	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Matthew Semelsberger	17 / 50	17 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Jake Matthews	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Matthew Semelsberger	10 / 25	15 / 33	1 / 3	0
3	Jake Matthews	7 / 27	42 / 69	1 / 2	1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11