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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · Decision R3

Elo1522

Elo1495

Jake MatthewsvsLi JingliangUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsLi Jingliang: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Li Jingliang wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Li Jingliang at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Li Jingliang

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1522

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Li JingliangL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricLi Jingliang

3.34

Strikes / min

4.46

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

60%

Strike defense

56%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.19

64%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsLi Jingliang

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Li Jingliang(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.5|Blue -27.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetLi Jingliang

By target zone

50% acc · 97%

Head

26% acc · 71%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 8%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

71% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 60%

Distance

30% acc · 82%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

67% acc · 38%

Ground

36% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Li Jingliang rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:07

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Li Jingliang edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:09

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 127

Sig Strikes

49 / 152

49%

Sig Str %

33%

89 / 156

Total Strikes

56 / 163

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:25

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Li Jingliang	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Matthews	26 / 51	46 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Li Jingliang	21 / 78	23 / 82	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Matthews	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 1	1
3	Li Jingliang	19 / 45	24 / 52	0 / 1	0
3	Jake Matthews	19 / 36	25 / 42	2 / 3	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17