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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1522

Elo1466

Jake MatthewsvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Matthews has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1522

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricKevin Lee

3.34

Strikes / min

3.88

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

60%

Strike defense

50%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

3.18

64%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.4|Blue -56.4

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

36% acc · 80%

Head

60% acc · 88%

50% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 80%

Distance

33% acc · 8%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

69% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 13

Sig Strikes

24 / 38

38%

Sig Str %

63%

5 / 13

Total Strikes

36 / 51

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	24 / 38	36 / 51	1 / 2	0
1	Jake Matthews	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19