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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R3
Elo1522
Jake Matthews
Elo1361
Johnny Case

Jake MatthewsvsJohnny CaseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:45

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsJohnny Case: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Johnny Case wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Case at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Case
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1522
Elo
1361
31
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews
oldest →
W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24
W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25
W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26
latest
Johnny Case
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14
W
KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15
W
vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15
W
vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricJohnny Case
3.34
Strikes / min
3.95
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
60%
Strike defense
61%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.70
64%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1569Strikes38.0 vs 46.5Takedowns1.8 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 1.0
Jake MatthewsJohnny Case

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901503151515281540← oldermost recent →
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +161.6|Blue -161.6
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetJohnny Case

By target zone

15
19% acc · 42%
Head
15
23% acc · 43%
10
53% acc · 28%
Body
14
54% acc · 40%
11
79% acc · 31%
Leg
6
75% acc · 17%

By position

30
30% acc · 83%
Distance
27
31% acc · 77%
4
44% acc · 11%
Clinch
2
33% acc · 6%
2
40% acc · 6%
Ground
6
75% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jake Matthews rounds
1
even
1
Johnny Case rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Johnny Case edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:37Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:13
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 114
Sig Strikes
35 / 100
30.3%
Sig Str %
34.3%
50 / 129
Total Strikes
49 / 116
0 / 4
TDs
1 / 6
0%
TD %
16.7%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:14
Ctrl Time
3:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Johnny Case18 / 5018 / 500 / 10
1Jake Matthews19 / 5619 / 560 / 20
2Johnny Case9 / 2420 / 371 / 20
2Jake Matthews6 / 207 / 210 / 20
3Johnny Case8 / 2611 / 290 / 30
3Jake Matthews11 / 3824 / 520 / 02

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights25

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6