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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Vick won · SUB R1

Elo1522

Elo1377

Jake MatthewsvsJames VickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

James Vick won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:53

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsJames Vick: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(61.5%)

Actual result: James Vick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Vick enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

James Vick

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1522

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

James VickL4 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricJames Vick

3.34

Strikes / min

4.13

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

60%

Strike defense

60%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.26

64%

Takedown defense

57%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsJames Vick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +145.5|Blue -145.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetJames Vick

By target zone

16% acc · 100%

Head

29% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 20%

Leg

60% acc · 30%

By position

14% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

James Vick rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 28

Sig Strikes

10 / 26

14%

Sig Str %

38%

4 / 28

Total Strikes

19 / 35

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Vick	10 / 26	19 / 35	0 / 1	1
1	Jake Matthews	4 / 28	4 / 28	1 / 2	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14