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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1452

Jake MatthewsvsFrancisco PradoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Prado enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Matthews has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jake Matthews has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Francisco Prado

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1522

Elo

1452

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Nov 23

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Francisco PradoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricFrancisco Prado

3.34

Strikes / min

3.68

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.76

64%

Takedown defense

40%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsFrancisco Prado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Francisco Prado(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.4|Blue -70.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetFrancisco Prado

By target zone

27% acc · 57%

Head

18% acc · 29%

73% acc · 35%

Body

68% acc · 32%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

88% acc · 39%

By position

33% acc · 82%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

85% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Francisco Prado rounds

Round 1Francisco Prado edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:40

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 184

Sig Strikes

59 / 146

36.3%

Sig Str %

40%

95 / 215

Total Strikes

64 / 152

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

2:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Prado	22 / 57	22 / 57	1 / 2
1	Jake Matthews	20 / 58	23 / 62	0 / 0
2	Francisco Prado	18 / 41	21 / 44	0 / 3
2	Jake Matthews	22 / 57	39 / 76	0 / 0
3	Francisco Prado	19 / 48	21 / 51	0 / 1
3	Jake Matthews	26 / 69	33 / 77	0 / 0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Francisco Prado

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5