← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1381

Jake MatthewsvsEmil MeekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Saturday, February 22, 2020Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Emil Meek wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Emil Meek at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jake Matthews has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Emil Meek (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Emil Meek

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1522

Elo

1381

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Emil MeekL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 16

vs Kamaru Usman · Jan 18

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricEmil Meek

3.34

Strikes / min

2.52

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

60%

Strike defense

38%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.25

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsEmil Meek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Emil Meek(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.3|Blue -141.3

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -440.0|Blue +440.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetEmil Meek

By target zone

46% acc · 97%

Head

37% acc · 70%

33% acc · 3%

Body

83% acc · 20%

Leg

45% acc · 10%

By position

42% acc · 79%

Distance

24% acc · 38%

80% acc · 12%

Clinch

72% acc · 42%

50% acc · 9%

Ground

91% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Emil Meek rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:57

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:54

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Emil Meek edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:37

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 73

Sig Strikes

50 / 118

53.3%

Sig Str %

36%

71 / 112

Total Strikes

85 / 162

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:28

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Emil Meek	2 / 14	6 / 21	0 / 0
1	Jake Matthews	10 / 19	36 / 46	1 / 1
2	Emil Meek	15 / 30	35 / 55	0 / 0
2	Jake Matthews	9 / 12	21 / 24	2 / 2
3	Emil Meek	33 / 74	44 / 86	0 / 1
3	Jake Matthews	14 / 42	14 / 42	1 / 4

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Emil Meek

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4