← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · SUB R3

Elo1522

Elo1354

Jake MatthewsvsDashon JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:16

Model Prediction: Dashon Johnson wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dashon Johnson at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Dashon Johnson

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1522

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Dashon Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Godofredo Pepey · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricDashon Johnson

3.34

Strikes / min

1.01

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

60%

Strike defense

35%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.85

64%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap-2.82

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Dashon Johnson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +168.8|Blue -168.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetDashon Johnson

By target zone

67% acc · 85%

Head

67% acc · 73%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

18% acc · 7%

Distance

56% acc · 45%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 55%

87% acc · 77%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Dashon Johnson rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control4:41

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control3:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control2:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 85

Sig Strikes

11 / 15

70%

Sig Str %

78.3%

137 / 167

Total Strikes

24 / 28

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:27

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dashon Johnson	2 / 2	9 / 9	0 / 0	1
1	Jake Matthews	26 / 29	68 / 72	0 / 1	0
2	Dashon Johnson	6 / 8	12 / 14	0 / 1	0
2	Jake Matthews	12 / 20	24 / 32	3 / 9	0
3	Dashon Johnson	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Jake Matthews	22 / 36	45 / 63	1 / 1	1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Dashon Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2